POSITIVE SIGN: HOME SALES INVENTORIES FALL TO UNDER 6 MONTHS’ SUPPLY
By Joe Pangburn, Inside Tucson Business
Published on Tuesday, August 04, 2009
In what may be one of the most positive signs yet that the Tucson residential real estate market is poised for recovery, Long Realty Research Center data shows inventories of homes priced under $250,000 have fallen below six months’ worth.
“Months of inventory is the best matrix to look at when you’re trying to see the temperature of a specific area or price point,” said Kevin Kaplan, vice president of marketing and technology. “Obviously it is the lower price points that are bringing in buyers from foreclosures and sellers lowering the asking price on their homes.”
Nevertheless, he said, a healthy and balanced market is considered to have around six months of inventory at a given time. The market as a whole has around 5.7 months of inventory on sale, down from the 8.4 months at this time a year ago, according to Long’s data.
The fastest movers are homes priced under $175,000 where there is 3.6 months of inventory based on June’s sales levels. Homes priced from $175,000 to $249,999 have 5.4 months of inventory.
Above the $300,000 price point, the inventory numbers climb. There’s a 7.5-month supply of homes in the $300,000 to $400,000 range, 11 months supply of homes priced $400,000 to $500,000, a 17.2-month inventory of homes in the $500,000 to $749,999 range; and two years’ supply of homes priced $750,000 to $999,999.
Kaplan said Tucson is experiencing a significant increase in buyer activity, with new properties under contract in June up 57 percent over June 2008.
“We’ve really gotten to a more balanced healthy level with active to sold,” Kaplan said. “Some markets even look a little overheated. It will take another few months to see if there gets to be an equilibrium and prices come up some to curb the high demand.”
The higher demand Kaplan is referring to is mostly centralized in the southwest, southeast and central/east area of the region.
A data analysis of the first half of the year show homes listed in zip codes 85706, 85756, 85710, 85711, 85730, 85741, 85746, 85747 and 85757 have the highest percentage sales to total active listings, according to data from Tucson Association of Realtors.
The top three zip codes with the highest percentage of listings sold are 85757 on the southwest side at 40.2 percent (31 sold of 77 active listings), 85711 in midtown generally between Alvernon Way and Wilmot Road at 36 percent (48 sold of 133 active), and 85746 on the southwest side at 31.2 percent (59 sold of 189 active).
Those same zip codes also have some of the lowest numbers for inventory — just 2.4 months supply in 85757, three months in 85711 and 3.3 months in 85746, according to Long’s data.
Southeast side zip code 85706 also has a low inventory supply of 2.8 months, though percentage of homes (88 of 292 active listings) meant percentage of sales was just over 30 percent.
“That south side of town has had a bit more of a price decline and probably has a higher foreclosure mix,” Kaplan said. “We’ve seen huge increases in sales units there.”
Louis Parrish, associate broker with Keller Williams Tucson Territory Realty, agrees.
“You would probably find that the higher percentage groups are also areas that have had the highest percentage of depreciation, highest rates of foreclosure and highest rates of short sale listings. When those neighborhoods are totally stabilized, the rest of our markets’ current stabilization trends should accelerate.”
For more information on the Tucson Housing Market, call Julie Nellis, Long Realty, 520-990-8477 or visit www.tucsonhouses4you.com
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Pending Home Sales Up
Pending Home Sales up for Fifth Consecutive Month
RISMEDIA, August 5, 2009-Pending home sales are up for the fifth consecutive month, the first time in six years for such a streak, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6% to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May, and is 6.7% above June 2008 when it was 88.7. The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was in July 2003.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a combination of positive market factors is fueling the gains. “Historically low mortgage interest rates, affordable home prices and large selection are encouraging buyers who’ve been on the sidelines. Activity has been consistently much stronger for lower priced homes,” he said. ”Because it may take as long as two months to close on a home after signing a contract, first-time buyers must act fairly soon to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit because they must close on the sale by November 30.”
The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast rose 0.4% to 81.2 in June and is 5.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index increased 0.8% to 89.9 and is 11.6% above June 2008. The index in the South jumped 7.1% to 100.7 in June and is 8.9% higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 2.9% to 100.4 but is 0.2% below June 2008.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, is hopeful that a recently elevated level of contract cancellations will ease. “Last month, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae clarified that appraisals should be done by professionals with clear local expertise,” he said. “This should mitigate the situation of many valuations done by out-of-area appraisers coming in below the price negotiated between buyers and sellers. Hopefully, in the months ahead, we’ll see an even closer relationship between contract activity and closed transactions.” McMillan said NAR is continuing to press the appraisal issue. “We have asked Congress and the Federal Housing Finance Agency to immediately implement an 18-month moratorium on the new appraisal rules to further address unintended consequences of the new guidelines,” he said.
NAR’s Housing Affordability Index (HAI) remains very favorable. The affordability index stood at 159.2 in July, down from record peaks in recent months but it remains 36.6 percentage points above a year ago. Under these conditions the typical family would devote 15.7% of gross income to mortgage principal and interest, well below the standard allowance of 25%. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income.
“A monthly rise in home prices and somewhat higher mortgage interest rates led to a modest decline in affordability in June, but it was still the sixth highest index on record dating back to 1970,” Yun said. “Because housing is so affordable in today’s market, job security and the first-time buyer tax credit are bigger factors in influencing home sales.”
A median-income family, earning $60,700, could afford a home costing $289,100 in June with a 20% downpayment, assuming 25% of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80% of what a median-income family can afford. The affordable price was much higher than the median existing single-family home price in June, which was $181,600.
Yun expects existing-home sales to gradually rise over the balance of the year, with conditions varying around the country. “It appears home sales are on a sounder footing and inventory is gradually being absorbed.”
Call Julie Nellis, Long Realty, for more information on the real estate market in Tucson, Arizona, 520-990-8477 or visit www.tucsonhouses4you.com
RISMEDIA, August 5, 2009-Pending home sales are up for the fifth consecutive month, the first time in six years for such a streak, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6% to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May, and is 6.7% above June 2008 when it was 88.7. The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was in July 2003.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a combination of positive market factors is fueling the gains. “Historically low mortgage interest rates, affordable home prices and large selection are encouraging buyers who’ve been on the sidelines. Activity has been consistently much stronger for lower priced homes,” he said. ”Because it may take as long as two months to close on a home after signing a contract, first-time buyers must act fairly soon to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit because they must close on the sale by November 30.”
The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast rose 0.4% to 81.2 in June and is 5.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index increased 0.8% to 89.9 and is 11.6% above June 2008. The index in the South jumped 7.1% to 100.7 in June and is 8.9% higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 2.9% to 100.4 but is 0.2% below June 2008.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, is hopeful that a recently elevated level of contract cancellations will ease. “Last month, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae clarified that appraisals should be done by professionals with clear local expertise,” he said. “This should mitigate the situation of many valuations done by out-of-area appraisers coming in below the price negotiated between buyers and sellers. Hopefully, in the months ahead, we’ll see an even closer relationship between contract activity and closed transactions.” McMillan said NAR is continuing to press the appraisal issue. “We have asked Congress and the Federal Housing Finance Agency to immediately implement an 18-month moratorium on the new appraisal rules to further address unintended consequences of the new guidelines,” he said.
NAR’s Housing Affordability Index (HAI) remains very favorable. The affordability index stood at 159.2 in July, down from record peaks in recent months but it remains 36.6 percentage points above a year ago. Under these conditions the typical family would devote 15.7% of gross income to mortgage principal and interest, well below the standard allowance of 25%. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income.
“A monthly rise in home prices and somewhat higher mortgage interest rates led to a modest decline in affordability in June, but it was still the sixth highest index on record dating back to 1970,” Yun said. “Because housing is so affordable in today’s market, job security and the first-time buyer tax credit are bigger factors in influencing home sales.”
A median-income family, earning $60,700, could afford a home costing $289,100 in June with a 20% downpayment, assuming 25% of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80% of what a median-income family can afford. The affordable price was much higher than the median existing single-family home price in June, which was $181,600.
Yun expects existing-home sales to gradually rise over the balance of the year, with conditions varying around the country. “It appears home sales are on a sounder footing and inventory is gradually being absorbed.”
Call Julie Nellis, Long Realty, for more information on the real estate market in Tucson, Arizona, 520-990-8477 or visit www.tucsonhouses4you.com
Lower Appraisals
Are Tighter Appraisals Hurting Home Sales?
RISMEDIA, June 22, 2009-(MCT)-Less than a week after putting his newly renovated house in Idylwood, Texas, on the market, Derrick DeCristofaro accepted a full-price offer of $242,900 on the 1940 bungalow.
But the appraisal on the 1,780-square-foot home came in at just $206,000. The buyer couldn’t come up with enough cash to make up the difference and DeCristofaro wasn’t willing to drop the price, so the deal fell through.
On top of already sluggish home sales, are appraisals becoming the newest threat to the local housing market?
Real estate experts said sales are collapsing because appraisers are being more conservative and valuing homes for less than what buyers have agreed to pay. Some owners can’t refinance because appraisers say their homes are worth less than they had counted on.
In DeCristofaro’s case, the low appraisal affected the would-be buyer’s ability to get a mortgage for the contracted price.
“Their lender naturally wouldn’t approve that,” DeCristofaro said.
His house is under contract again to a backup buyer, but because of new rules regulating appraisals, and a more conservative lending environment in general, DeCristofaro is worried about the new sale closing as well.
“It’s shocking. If we just pulled a buyer out of thin air, it would be a different story, but we had multiple offers coming in. It seems strange the lenders wouldn’t support that,” said DeCristofaro, an interior designer who is an investor in the home, which has two other owners.
Real estate broker Robert Searcy has seen a number of sales fall through because of low appraisals.
And that has the potential to hurt property values, too, he said.
“The biggest challenge isn’t the economy, or buyers who can’t qualify for loans. It’s appraisers coming in with ridiculously low appraisals,” said Searcy, who is listing DeCristofaro’s house.
Part of what’s at issue is a new rule that went into effect May 1 prohibiting loan officers, mortgage brokers and real estate agents from selecting appraisers.
New rules for lenders
The rule falls under the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct, the result of an agreement between Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the New York state attorney general to enhance the independence and accuracy of the appraisal process. It applies to lenders that sell single-family mortgage loans to the government-sponsored enterprises.
The rule was meant to prevent inflated appraisals like those that proliferated during the housing boom.
Houston appraiser Chris Catechis said there were a couple of times in recent years when he felt pressure from mortgage brokers to “hit a value” on a property. If it didn’t, they threatened to take their business elsewhere, which is what he said he advised them to do.While the appraiser, a partner in Catechis, Campbell & Associates, understands why the new rules were implemented, it has cost him business.
Lenders are now using more appraisal management companies when they select appraisers. These companies often charge a fee to the lender and pay an outside appraiser like Catechis a portion of that fee.
Unfamiliar with the area
One of the unintended consequences of this system, however, is the chance that a management company will hire an appraiser who isn’t familiar with the neighborhood where the house is being evaluated, said Catechis.
“When you have appraisers coming from different parts of town and not knowing areas, they aren’t doing justice to the people that are trying to refinance or sell,” Catechis said. “It really skews the whole appraisal process.”
The appraisal business, in general, has become more difficult in today’s residential real estate market because there are fewer sales — many of which are foreclosures.
Some OK with caution
Catechis said he’s now often required to get two comparable sales that took place within the past 90 days. If there are none, he’ll have to look at similar subdivisions nearby.“There’s a lot more detail involved in an appraisal for a lesser price,” he said.
Not everyone is as concerned about appraisers taking a more cautious tack.
David Zugheri, of Envoy Mortgage in Houston, said he hasn’t seen a high percentage of homes for sale not appraising.
While the industry is more conservative, “if the value is less than the sales price there’s a strong case that the value really is less than the sales price,” he said.
For more information on what your home's value is in today's market, call Julie Nellis, Long Realty, 520-990-8377 today, or visit www.tucsonhouses4you.com
RISMEDIA, June 22, 2009-(MCT)-Less than a week after putting his newly renovated house in Idylwood, Texas, on the market, Derrick DeCristofaro accepted a full-price offer of $242,900 on the 1940 bungalow.
But the appraisal on the 1,780-square-foot home came in at just $206,000. The buyer couldn’t come up with enough cash to make up the difference and DeCristofaro wasn’t willing to drop the price, so the deal fell through.
On top of already sluggish home sales, are appraisals becoming the newest threat to the local housing market?
Real estate experts said sales are collapsing because appraisers are being more conservative and valuing homes for less than what buyers have agreed to pay. Some owners can’t refinance because appraisers say their homes are worth less than they had counted on.
In DeCristofaro’s case, the low appraisal affected the would-be buyer’s ability to get a mortgage for the contracted price.
“Their lender naturally wouldn’t approve that,” DeCristofaro said.
His house is under contract again to a backup buyer, but because of new rules regulating appraisals, and a more conservative lending environment in general, DeCristofaro is worried about the new sale closing as well.
“It’s shocking. If we just pulled a buyer out of thin air, it would be a different story, but we had multiple offers coming in. It seems strange the lenders wouldn’t support that,” said DeCristofaro, an interior designer who is an investor in the home, which has two other owners.
Real estate broker Robert Searcy has seen a number of sales fall through because of low appraisals.
And that has the potential to hurt property values, too, he said.
“The biggest challenge isn’t the economy, or buyers who can’t qualify for loans. It’s appraisers coming in with ridiculously low appraisals,” said Searcy, who is listing DeCristofaro’s house.
Part of what’s at issue is a new rule that went into effect May 1 prohibiting loan officers, mortgage brokers and real estate agents from selecting appraisers.
New rules for lenders
The rule falls under the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct, the result of an agreement between Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the New York state attorney general to enhance the independence and accuracy of the appraisal process. It applies to lenders that sell single-family mortgage loans to the government-sponsored enterprises.
The rule was meant to prevent inflated appraisals like those that proliferated during the housing boom.
Houston appraiser Chris Catechis said there were a couple of times in recent years when he felt pressure from mortgage brokers to “hit a value” on a property. If it didn’t, they threatened to take their business elsewhere, which is what he said he advised them to do.While the appraiser, a partner in Catechis, Campbell & Associates, understands why the new rules were implemented, it has cost him business.
Lenders are now using more appraisal management companies when they select appraisers. These companies often charge a fee to the lender and pay an outside appraiser like Catechis a portion of that fee.
Unfamiliar with the area
One of the unintended consequences of this system, however, is the chance that a management company will hire an appraiser who isn’t familiar with the neighborhood where the house is being evaluated, said Catechis.
“When you have appraisers coming from different parts of town and not knowing areas, they aren’t doing justice to the people that are trying to refinance or sell,” Catechis said. “It really skews the whole appraisal process.”
The appraisal business, in general, has become more difficult in today’s residential real estate market because there are fewer sales — many of which are foreclosures.
Some OK with caution
Catechis said he’s now often required to get two comparable sales that took place within the past 90 days. If there are none, he’ll have to look at similar subdivisions nearby.“There’s a lot more detail involved in an appraisal for a lesser price,” he said.
Not everyone is as concerned about appraisers taking a more cautious tack.
David Zugheri, of Envoy Mortgage in Houston, said he hasn’t seen a high percentage of homes for sale not appraising.
While the industry is more conservative, “if the value is less than the sales price there’s a strong case that the value really is less than the sales price,” he said.
For more information on what your home's value is in today's market, call Julie Nellis, Long Realty, 520-990-8377 today, or visit www.tucsonhouses4you.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
